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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."